Adam Larsson Hype

Adam Larsson and Teemu Hartikainen tangle along the boards - a preview of a future Oilers practice?

Since even before the draft, I've been hearing about Adam Larsson.  Oiler fans, anticipating another season potentially scrubbing the NHL's basement, became excited about having a top 3 draft pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.  The 2011 preliminary rankings have the top 3 listed, in order, as Sean Couturier, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Larsson.  After the preliminary rankings, which NHL teams use to set targets for their scouting teams, the ISS is mostly disregarded by the pros and only serves as something to talk about for the fans.

Larsson has drawn the most attention of the three because of the incredible wording used to describe him, such as "potentially the best player to come out of Sweden".  Most of this talk is on the basis of his 2010 performance in the Swedish Elite League, where he scored 17 points (5G, 12A) as a 17-year-old, matching a 30-year-old record.

Thus, the preliminary rankings, as well as all draft lists compiled by news media, bloggers, and forum posters, are based on the efforts of the previous season.  The entire summer, for the rabid fans that talk hockey even in the middle of August, was just a giant echo chamber for what Larsson had done the year before.  Much of the hype and expectations he's carrying now are the result of that summer.

The 3 assists in 17 games so far this season do not suggest that Larsson will be able to maintain his top-3 ranking, never mind become "the best player out of Sweden".  For comparison, as a 17 year old, Victor Hedman had 2G and 2A in 39 games for MODO.  In his draft year, he improved to 7G and 14A in 43 games, and still went second overall behind Tavares.

Larsson is getting almost 18 minutes per game of ice time, so he's at least getting a decent shot at proving himself worthy of getting more.  His team is second overall in standings, so it's hard to argue that he has poor support to finish the plays he makes.  It could be that he's injured, but we haven't heard anything on this side of the pond.  An injury, while an excuse for poor performance, is also going to his his draft ranking - just ask Brett Connolly.  Injured players don't develop as well, and there's always the fear that the player could be fragile.

We'll have a better idea of Larsson's potential later in the season, especially once Bob McKenzie compiles his draft rankings.  Until then, Oiler fans may be better served by taking a more critical look at Larsson and instead imagining Couturier or Nugent-Hopkins up the middle, or perhaps Ryan Murphy.  31 points in 18 games, including 10 goals, is nothing to sneeze at in the OHL.  And he's a defenceman!