Other Teams: Burke

Brian Burke and star acquisition Phil Kessel in happier times

I might be the only Brian Burke fan in Edmonton, certainly the only Oilers fan I know of who likes Burke, a strange state of affairs I'll explain at a later date.  The many Leafs ex-pats in Edmonton likely feel the same way as Toronto residents do - they wish he'd followed the Chicago Way.  The Chicago Way being trendy this year (at least until Philly wins the Cup), this is a tough criticism to fight against, given that the Leafs traded two first-round picks for Phil Kessel.  Of course, last year's turned out to be second overall and  given the Leafs' travails this year, it's possible that the Boston Bruins will be drafting in the top 5 and are almost guaranteed to be top 10.  First overall, barring an unlikely lottery win, is not in the cards.  Currently the Leafs sit 13th in the East and 27th overall, though improvement for this team seems possible.

For the rest of this post, I'll do like I did yesterday: I'll set aside my fan-induced dislike of the Leafs and judge them, Burke, and Ron Wilson as impartially as I can.

The Kessel trade defines the Leafs now and will continue to define them for the next decade.  In Brian's own words, in September of 2009 when he pulled the trigger, "It's a very high price but it's one we feel makes sense for us [...]"  He knew it was a gamble.  Draft picks and prospects and even legitimate NHLers always are (chemistry, injuries, coach and system, etc.)

Kessel came highly touted in the 2006 draft, as a natural goal scorer who scores like a small player but has the size and strength of an average NHLer.  He showed flashes of that in his first two seasons, putting up 11 goals and 18 assists (-12) in '06-'07, then followed that up with 19 goals and 18 helpers (with a -6).  It's only in '08-'09 that he took off, smashing the 30-goal barrier decisively with a 36 goal, 24 assist campaign and ending the season with a very respectable +23.  He made only 232 shots that year, which gave him a 15.5% shooting percentage that is good but not an outlier for star players.  For comparison, Jonathan Toews is having a fairly average season for him this year and is banging home 13.4% of his shots.

At the time of the trade, Phil was only 21 years old and already a 36-goal scorer.  The Bruins could not sign him for what Phil wanted while remaining under the cap.  The 5-year, $27m contract that Kessel got from the Leafs is fair market value for a UFA with those stats, probably an overpayment for an RFA if other teams weren't going to sign him.  Since the Kevin Lowe offer to Thomas Vanek a few years ago, however, RFAs have lost their "untouchable" status, especially star prospects.  With the contracts Kessel would be getting as offers, the Bruins could have been getting 4 1st round picks as compensation.  Two first-rounders was a fair gamble.  It's obvious that Burke expected his team to be better, and given Philly's success in partially rebuilding through free agency, and Burke's own success in Anaheim (completely changing the squad that lost in the 2003 Cup Finals), it's not unreasonable to think he could do it again.  Kessel was a worthy gamble.  The Leafs arguably lost the bet but that remains to be seen - all sorts things can happen in the future.  Even if Seguin pans out, Kessel isn't bad compensation.

This brings us to the rest of the Leafs: this is a completely different squad than that under Cliff Fletcher.  They're younger, faster, and very soon will be better.  I dare say the Leafs are, for the moment, a better team than most of the non-playoff Eastern competition - except in goal, and except down the middle.  Of all the teams in the league, nobody is weaker down the middle than the Leafs are.  After Grabovski, there's this big, yawning chasm the size of the Grand Canyon, and then in the second line role is Tyler Bozak.  The 24-year-old is almost a rookie, having played only 37 games last year and 33 this year.  He may very well develop into something much more, but for now he's playing big minutes without big experience.

The other hole the Leafs have is puck-moving defencemen.  Despite having gotten the better of Calgary in the Phaneuf trade, Toronto is coming to realize Dion's limitations.  He may have size, strength, hitting power, shooting and good (but not great) passing, Dion has the same weakness he's had for years: positioning.  I'm obviously not a scout, heck, I'm not even a Pee-Wee coach, but this has been the knock on Phaneuf since day 1 and continues to be.  Given that Calgary felt OK in dealing the younger Phaneuf rather than the older Iginla, and that Phaneuf has dropped off the media's radar after 3-4 years as "the next Stevens", I feel justified in posting this.  He doesn't read defensive plays very well.  At age 25, Phaneuf is still learning defence but he's getting to that age, especially since he started young and has a lot of experience, where people worry if he's ever going to "get it". Phaneuf isn't horrible defensively, but not the elite, all-around defensive stalwart he's paid to be; the Chris Pronger, who Kevin Lowe famously remarked about, "when he's on the ice, you feel as if nothing can go wrong."  Of course, with many players, the light bulb often just suddenly turns on - one month they're the same-old same-old, the next they're the player they were projected to be.  As Dion ages, feels the pressure of being captain, and realizes what it takes to win, this may very well happen.

Despite their awful position right now and the pain of seeing the #1B draft choice in Boston, knowing that another high pick is going there, the Leafs are in good position.  They're young, they're tough, they're fairly quick.  The talent level and potential aren't as good as the Oilers, but their defencemen are better at actual defence (Toronto has no Whitney, but they have a lot of Smids.)  They have a lot of cap space and no players on entry-level contracts who are going to get big raises three years from now, unlike the Oilers.

Brian's real talent is in bringing quality free agents.  Like Paul Holmgren, he has a knack for signing the right guys for cheap.  Clarke MacArthur is this year's best example, and despite poor numbers, Colby Armstrong makes the Leafs a markedly better and tougher team when he's on the ice.

A solid goaltender will put them just behind the playoff race.  A puck-moving defenceman should get them possibly into the playoffs.  A second-line centre (nobody's going to trade a first-line centre away) will give them a real future.

I suspect it's a lot easier to be optimistic, or at least realistic about the Leafs when you don't have 43 years of frustration behind you and twenty media outlets focusing on every foible.  If Leafs fans could take a deep breath, and look on their team with my eyes, they'll see that the promise of a proper rebuild wasn't wasted.  It might have hit a hiccup with Kessel/Seguin and not gone the Chicago/Pittsburgh/Washington way, but we should see more out of them next season and potentially after this trade deadline.

Just for fun, let's compare goalies:

J.S. Giguere: 2.80 GAA, .894 SP.

J. Gustavsson: 3.10 GAA, .894 SP.

N. Khabibulion: 3.40 GAA, .899 SP.

D. Dubnyk: 3.07 GAA, .915 SP.

Khabi was our man in net when the Oilers were blown out during Nightmare November, and very few of those were his fault, as Tyler Dellow of MC79 details so accurately (for the 8-2 Rangers shellacking, at least).