The Chicago Way

No caption necessary

From the moment the new CBA was signed, the hard cap made it obvious that teams couldn't buy Stanley Cups any more - or try to, like the Rangers and Leafs.  What wasn't immediately apparent was how important drafting would be.  Everyone saw how good the Penguins would be, but they had Sidney Crosby, a generational talent, and they got extremely lucky with Malkin.  In any other draft year, Malkin would have gone first and second overall would have seemed a distant second, but with Alex Ovechkin on the board, the Capitals chose him.

Meanwhile, time went on.  The Oilers went to the Cup Finals in the first year back from the lockout, carried on the wide shoulders of Chris Pronger and buoyed by some stellar play from heretofore minor contributors like Fernando Pisani.  Stellar play from Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff, with a once-in-a-career burst of motivation from Raffi Torres and a rejuvenated Jason Smith provided offensive punch and grit.  Dwyane Roloson played lights out and is still, to this day, under-rated by the league.  All this was held together by a team that listened to Craig MacTavish, a team that was completely selfless.  They sacrificed their bodies to block shots in numbers that I haven't seen since.  They never doubted themselves.  For all players and staff involved, including Pronger, this was probably the peak of their careers.

Though they lost to the Hurricanes, the 2006 Cup Finals looked like a fluke to NHL insiders, I suspect.  No team modeled themselves after the Hurricanes or the Oilers, though the Ducks were quick to snatch up Chris Pronger.

When the Ducks won the Cup the year after, it was a different story.  The story had nothing to do with market size or TV audiences, but the regular season standings.  The Ducks were a dominant western team, the Senators were a dominant eastern team.  The Ducks played mean, tough hockey.  They beat you up, they took up the space in front of both nets and they had more going for them than Chris Pronger and a couple of people peaking at the right time.  The Senators were skilled, fast, and offensively talented like few teams since the mid-90s.  When mean and nasty beat skilled and speedy, many teams modeled themselves after the Ducks.

A year later, when the Wings won the Cup, few teams modeled themselves after the Wings.  It's tough following the only generational talent drafted in the 90s (Nick Lidstrom - he's earned it, and Chris Pronger is making a good case for himself.)  It's especially tough when that team is led to the Cup by the #210 overall pick in the 1999 draft (Zetterberg), and then #171 overall pick in the 1998 draft (Datsyuk).  As good as the Wings are as an organization, that was luck.  Luck can be imitated but never duplicated.  I suspect that the Oilers' penchant for drafting obscure Europeans way off the board comes from a desire to imitate Detroit.  What the Oilers got wrong is in wasting quality picks on guys high on potential and short on ability.  Those get taken in later rounds.

Of course, Detroit beat the Penguins that year.  And something funny happened.  The hockey world at large started noticing that Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin weren't exceptions.

Let me go back to the 1990s for a second.  Look at those drafts on Wikipedia or hockeydb.  Those drafts look so brutal compared to the 80s and especially the mid-2000s onward.  I am certain this has to do with the change in the game at the time.  With big, hulking brutes dominating play, only big, hulking brutes could compete.  This doesn't mean just the Hatchers, Lindroses, and Leclairs, but big, grown men.  Not boys.  6'3 or not, if you came out of the OHL straight to the big show, you'd be lucky to weigh 190lbs soaking wet.  All your speed and agility wouldn't matter a whit with Derian Hatcher or Luke Richardson hooking a ride (literally) and then driving you through the boards into the third row seats.  It was a game where you dumped the puck in, you lumbered after the defencemen as they slogged their way across the ice, you pounded them and they pounded you in the corners, and another forward was fighting the other defenceman in front of the net.  They'd go hammer and tongs at each other until the puck was cleared, in the net, or the whistle blew.

Not much room for the Taylor Halls and Steven Stamkoses of the world in that scenario, much less the Patrick Kanes and Sidney Crosbies.  If you were small, fast and skilled, you had to be phenomenally good at making plays in order to offset yourself as a liability along the boards or in front of the net.  It makes me wonder what kind of career Danny Briere could have had if he was drafted in '06 instead of '96.  Pat LaFontaine always comes to mind for some reason.

With the rule changes, however, it was becoming apparent that skilled draft picks could get by on skill alone.  First Crosby and Ovechkin, then a year later Malkin (he spent an extra year in Russia), followed by Toews, Kessel, Kane, and Backstrom.  That was followed by Stamkos and Doughty, and the year after Tavares and Hedman.  Since the lockout, kids have been making an impact in a way not seen since the early 80s.  If they didn't dominate in their first year, they often have in their second (Tavares having the roughest time, possibly because of foot speed, possibly because he's alone on the ice.)  Certainly Taylor Hall looks like a potential world-beater.

Is it a consequence of an incredible run of luck in prospects?  Or is it more an effect of the rule changes that favor speed and skill over sheer goon power?