The Centre of Attention

The center of attention, back for the winter
I'm interesting, the best thing since wrestling 

Taylor Hall being moved to centre, given the Oilers recent history of player development, would normally have a fan like myself in the hospital after choking on cereal after reading the news in the morning.  This year, however, there's not much to be concerned about.

Tom Renney is a smart coach.  So was Craig MacTavish.  The difference is in how they handle players, player mistakes, and their own.  MacT, for all his good qualities, was a quirky coach.  Toby Peterson on the first line power play is probably the best example of our dearly departed coach losing his marbles and not correcting the mistake.  Whether it's out of genuine mental error or spite for the skilled players denied power play time, we can't know.

We also couldn't know how he'd handle Hall at centre.  Would he shelter him with skilled players like Hemsky and Penner?  Would he stick him on the third or fourth line with low ice time so he wouldn't have opportunity to make mistakes?  Would he call him out in the media?  Would he shuffle Hall between centre and left wing constantly?  There's no way to tell.

Pat Quinn, if he would have bothered putting a rookie left wing at centre at all, would have a leash so short that Hall would likely be back on the left wing as soon as he got within earshot of Quinn's booming voice.  That's an exaggeration, but it testifies to the nature of Pat's coaching style.

Tom Renney is patient and calm.  He's afforded the luxury of this risky (for the team's record) move by virtue of not having to worry about the record.  But, as he's shown with Andrew Cogliano, he's also patient by nature.  We've seen some dividends with Cog's play, and by most metrics, Taylor Hall is a better player than Cogliano.  His combination of smarts, co-ordination, and size is hard to beat in and of itself.  Throw in pitbull-like tenacity, and Hall has a good chance of making the transition a la a certain former Oiler you may remember.

They even kind of look alike.  The eyebrows, the eyes, the big smiles.  They have somewhat similar playing styles, though Hall has as much of Glenn Anderson in him as he does of the Moose.

And now, a word from Mr. Adams

One of the best phrases in the Galaxy

I feel rather uncomfortable posting this, because I have my own doubts.  Yet I feel compelled to because I'm partly a contrarian out of nature, partly because I see merit in these points.

The 2000-2001 Penguins, with Jaromir Jagr, Alex Kovalev, Martin Straka, Robert Lang made it into the Eastern Conference Finals after a 96-point campaign.  Also chipping in for a stunning 76 points in 43 games was the Magnificent One, who hadn't played pro hockey in 3 and a half years.  I may be the only Edmontonian who believes Mario was better than Wayne, but that, like my appreciation for Brian Burke, is for another day.

The following season, they lost some key players - notably Jagr and Straka - and bombed to 69 points.  The year after was worse, with 65, despite a longer season from Mario (67 games, up from 24 in '01-'02.)  In 2003-2004 the Penguins were an unmitigated disaster, managing only 58 points - and remember, this entire discussion is the overtime loss era (though not yet shootout.)

With 2004-2005 a write-off due to the lockout, the Penguins got to draft Sidney Crosby.

In 2005-2006, Crosby's rookie campaign, he managed 39 goals and 63 assists.  Also on his team were Sergei Gonchar (58 points), and some of the last truly productive years for Mark Recchi (57 points in just 64 games) and John LeClair (51), along with an in-his-prime Ryan Malone and a great rookie campaign from Colby Armstrong.

The Pens were weak between the pipes, with rookie Marc-Andre Fleury shouldering the burden for 50 games and being the best option with a .898 save percentage and 3.25GAA.  Bad as those numbers were, they were by far the best on the Pens.  Somehow, he isn't ruined by that experience.

So this team, with some good offensive output, decent defenders, and shaky goaltending... repeated its 2003-2004 record, with just 58 points again.

The Pens, over four years, drafted first overall twice (Crosby and Fleury) and second overall twice (Malkin and Staal.)  Crosby is a generational talent.  We may not see another like him.  Malkin is "just" a superstar.  Fleury is good, he might even become great, but his name doesn't ring out with Roy, Brodeur, and Hasek - and probably never will.  Jordan Staal is Jordan Staal, sort of a unique entity at this point with no parallels I can come up with.  Is he overpaid?  Under-appreciated?    Limited by his role?

To get all that, the Pens went through 4 miserable years, seeing one superstar, one star, and one legend leave the team or even the game.

Should we, as Oilers fans, be in a panic over our scenario?  What were Pittsburgh fans thinking in January of 2006?

The most beautiful woman in the world; Audrey reborn

In the time it took to Bob McKenzie to type out a twitter indicating that Ryan Whitney's ankle injury may be measured in months rather than weeks, the Oilers went from being a beautiful girl in full bloom of a fresh, young romance, to suddenly crying and dumped.  Still beautiful, still young, but now damaged and will need time to heal. 

In terms of individuals, they'll all say the right things - from Tambo on down to Ryan O'Marra.  Expect quotes like: "We're still looking to win, we may be young and have a few injured players but that doesn't excuse us from effort", and "This may be a learning season for our many young players, but the best way to learn is by winning".

There is, of course, no other possible response - in public or in private - for members of the organization.  Only at the very highest levels will Steve Tambellini and Tom Renney discuss how much darker our immediate future has become.  Where my concern as a fan comes in is if they realize the long-term danger.

There seem to be two kinds of teams that draft high: those that visit the basement and use their picks to get right out of it, and the perpetual basement dwellers.  Pittsburgh, Washington, and Philadelphia are all teams that hit the bottom and bounced back.  The Penguins spent the longest time there due to their financial and arena situation.  The Capitals were losing for quite a while despite ownership's best efforts (Ted Leonsis may be the best owner in sports.)  Philadelphia went from playoff contender to bottom-feeder, and right back to playoff contender.  They had one lottery pick, James van Riemsdyk, and he's not the reason for their turn-around or Stanley Cup run last year.

The other kinds of teams that draft high are best exemplified by the New York Islanders, Atlanta Thrashers, and Florida Panthers.  All three have consistently had high lottery picks, even #1 overall picks in the case of the Islanders, and their forays into the playoffs have been almost as brief as they are rare.  Atlanta is doing much better this season and the resolved ownership issues should help them out, but it remains to be seen if they can truly dig themselves out of their hole.  Other teams that could be used as examples until recently are the Phoenix Coyotes and Chicago Blackhawks.

The Blackhawks and Thrashers are the best examples of where the Oilers could go.  Under Dollar Bill Wirtz, the Blackhawks refused to spend in free agency, and if they did, it would be a one-off contract like the one that brought Khabibulin to the Windy City.  They'd fail to follow it up and build a team around their new player.  They didn't get support for Martin Havlat, either.  As much as Chicago's success is due to Toews and Kane breaking out, Chicago was already in the midst of improving their supporting cast in the rookie season for the dynamic duo.  The Oilers are apparently intent on tanking further.

This is demoralizing.  It's demoralizing for players like Ales Hemsky and Ryan Whitney, who are in their primes and want to get back into the playoffs, to compete and win.  It's demoralizing to older players like Shawn Horcoff and younger ones like Sam Gagner, who's been on losing teams his whole NHL career.  Franchises and fans can wait and hope the tank job accomplishes something.  Players have short careers, shorter peaks of their careers, and in a 30-team league, there's a two-thirds chance that an average player with a 10-year career will not win the Cup.  It's a 50% chance for those whose skills stand the test of time, who manage 15 years in the league.  Patience is a virtue, but the lack of it in players is understandable.

How the Oilers weren't involved in talks for James Wisniewski is beyond me.  We needed help on the back end before Whitney went down.  We need more than Jeff Petry and Martin Marincin, who might be impact players 5 years from now.  We need veterans.

Or we might end up like that other team, the other path the Oilers could go down on - the Atlanta Thrashers.  A couple of skilled wingers, a few holes in the middle, and a yawning chasm on the back end.  Tell me if this doesn't sound familiar: a team with a very complete scoring right winger and a dynamic goal-scoring left winger, with middling centres and no defence, picks in the lottery again and again.  That's the Thrashers as they were for years - Hossa and Kovalchuk.  It could also be the Oilers unless management gets serious. 

It's not that Pajaarvi, Omark, Hall and Eberle lack the will to win.  It's that they can't do it, not even the four of them if they develop into superstars.  They need support.  As star junior players realize they can't do it alone like they did when they were 18, so they realize that the franchise has to support them, or they go looking for other venues.  Losing is a disease.  Cure it or it becomes a chronic condition for the franchise.

The Chicago Way

No caption necessary

From the moment the new CBA was signed, the hard cap made it obvious that teams couldn't buy Stanley Cups any more - or try to, like the Rangers and Leafs.  What wasn't immediately apparent was how important drafting would be.  Everyone saw how good the Penguins would be, but they had Sidney Crosby, a generational talent, and they got extremely lucky with Malkin.  In any other draft year, Malkin would have gone first and second overall would have seemed a distant second, but with Alex Ovechkin on the board, the Capitals chose him.

Meanwhile, time went on.  The Oilers went to the Cup Finals in the first year back from the lockout, carried on the wide shoulders of Chris Pronger and buoyed by some stellar play from heretofore minor contributors like Fernando Pisani.  Stellar play from Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff, with a once-in-a-career burst of motivation from Raffi Torres and a rejuvenated Jason Smith provided offensive punch and grit.  Dwyane Roloson played lights out and is still, to this day, under-rated by the league.  All this was held together by a team that listened to Craig MacTavish, a team that was completely selfless.  They sacrificed their bodies to block shots in numbers that I haven't seen since.  They never doubted themselves.  For all players and staff involved, including Pronger, this was probably the peak of their careers.

Though they lost to the Hurricanes, the 2006 Cup Finals looked like a fluke to NHL insiders, I suspect.  No team modeled themselves after the Hurricanes or the Oilers, though the Ducks were quick to snatch up Chris Pronger.

When the Ducks won the Cup the year after, it was a different story.  The story had nothing to do with market size or TV audiences, but the regular season standings.  The Ducks were a dominant western team, the Senators were a dominant eastern team.  The Ducks played mean, tough hockey.  They beat you up, they took up the space in front of both nets and they had more going for them than Chris Pronger and a couple of people peaking at the right time.  The Senators were skilled, fast, and offensively talented like few teams since the mid-90s.  When mean and nasty beat skilled and speedy, many teams modeled themselves after the Ducks.

A year later, when the Wings won the Cup, few teams modeled themselves after the Wings.  It's tough following the only generational talent drafted in the 90s (Nick Lidstrom - he's earned it, and Chris Pronger is making a good case for himself.)  It's especially tough when that team is led to the Cup by the #210 overall pick in the 1999 draft (Zetterberg), and then #171 overall pick in the 1998 draft (Datsyuk).  As good as the Wings are as an organization, that was luck.  Luck can be imitated but never duplicated.  I suspect that the Oilers' penchant for drafting obscure Europeans way off the board comes from a desire to imitate Detroit.  What the Oilers got wrong is in wasting quality picks on guys high on potential and short on ability.  Those get taken in later rounds.

Of course, Detroit beat the Penguins that year.  And something funny happened.  The hockey world at large started noticing that Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin weren't exceptions.

Let me go back to the 1990s for a second.  Look at those drafts on Wikipedia or hockeydb.  Those drafts look so brutal compared to the 80s and especially the mid-2000s onward.  I am certain this has to do with the change in the game at the time.  With big, hulking brutes dominating play, only big, hulking brutes could compete.  This doesn't mean just the Hatchers, Lindroses, and Leclairs, but big, grown men.  Not boys.  6'3 or not, if you came out of the OHL straight to the big show, you'd be lucky to weigh 190lbs soaking wet.  All your speed and agility wouldn't matter a whit with Derian Hatcher or Luke Richardson hooking a ride (literally) and then driving you through the boards into the third row seats.  It was a game where you dumped the puck in, you lumbered after the defencemen as they slogged their way across the ice, you pounded them and they pounded you in the corners, and another forward was fighting the other defenceman in front of the net.  They'd go hammer and tongs at each other until the puck was cleared, in the net, or the whistle blew.

Not much room for the Taylor Halls and Steven Stamkoses of the world in that scenario, much less the Patrick Kanes and Sidney Crosbies.  If you were small, fast and skilled, you had to be phenomenally good at making plays in order to offset yourself as a liability along the boards or in front of the net.  It makes me wonder what kind of career Danny Briere could have had if he was drafted in '06 instead of '96.  Pat LaFontaine always comes to mind for some reason.

With the rule changes, however, it was becoming apparent that skilled draft picks could get by on skill alone.  First Crosby and Ovechkin, then a year later Malkin (he spent an extra year in Russia), followed by Toews, Kessel, Kane, and Backstrom.  That was followed by Stamkos and Doughty, and the year after Tavares and Hedman.  Since the lockout, kids have been making an impact in a way not seen since the early 80s.  If they didn't dominate in their first year, they often have in their second (Tavares having the roughest time, possibly because of foot speed, possibly because he's alone on the ice.)  Certainly Taylor Hall looks like a potential world-beater.

Is it a consequence of an incredible run of luck in prospects?  Or is it more an effect of the rule changes that favor speed and skill over sheer goon power?

Other Teams: Burke

Brian Burke and star acquisition Phil Kessel in happier times

I might be the only Brian Burke fan in Edmonton, certainly the only Oilers fan I know of who likes Burke, a strange state of affairs I'll explain at a later date.  The many Leafs ex-pats in Edmonton likely feel the same way as Toronto residents do - they wish he'd followed the Chicago Way.  The Chicago Way being trendy this year (at least until Philly wins the Cup), this is a tough criticism to fight against, given that the Leafs traded two first-round picks for Phil Kessel.  Of course, last year's turned out to be second overall and  given the Leafs' travails this year, it's possible that the Boston Bruins will be drafting in the top 5 and are almost guaranteed to be top 10.  First overall, barring an unlikely lottery win, is not in the cards.  Currently the Leafs sit 13th in the East and 27th overall, though improvement for this team seems possible.

For the rest of this post, I'll do like I did yesterday: I'll set aside my fan-induced dislike of the Leafs and judge them, Burke, and Ron Wilson as impartially as I can.

The Kessel trade defines the Leafs now and will continue to define them for the next decade.  In Brian's own words, in September of 2009 when he pulled the trigger, "It's a very high price but it's one we feel makes sense for us [...]"  He knew it was a gamble.  Draft picks and prospects and even legitimate NHLers always are (chemistry, injuries, coach and system, etc.)

Kessel came highly touted in the 2006 draft, as a natural goal scorer who scores like a small player but has the size and strength of an average NHLer.  He showed flashes of that in his first two seasons, putting up 11 goals and 18 assists (-12) in '06-'07, then followed that up with 19 goals and 18 helpers (with a -6).  It's only in '08-'09 that he took off, smashing the 30-goal barrier decisively with a 36 goal, 24 assist campaign and ending the season with a very respectable +23.  He made only 232 shots that year, which gave him a 15.5% shooting percentage that is good but not an outlier for star players.  For comparison, Jonathan Toews is having a fairly average season for him this year and is banging home 13.4% of his shots.

At the time of the trade, Phil was only 21 years old and already a 36-goal scorer.  The Bruins could not sign him for what Phil wanted while remaining under the cap.  The 5-year, $27m contract that Kessel got from the Leafs is fair market value for a UFA with those stats, probably an overpayment for an RFA if other teams weren't going to sign him.  Since the Kevin Lowe offer to Thomas Vanek a few years ago, however, RFAs have lost their "untouchable" status, especially star prospects.  With the contracts Kessel would be getting as offers, the Bruins could have been getting 4 1st round picks as compensation.  Two first-rounders was a fair gamble.  It's obvious that Burke expected his team to be better, and given Philly's success in partially rebuilding through free agency, and Burke's own success in Anaheim (completely changing the squad that lost in the 2003 Cup Finals), it's not unreasonable to think he could do it again.  Kessel was a worthy gamble.  The Leafs arguably lost the bet but that remains to be seen - all sorts things can happen in the future.  Even if Seguin pans out, Kessel isn't bad compensation.

This brings us to the rest of the Leafs: this is a completely different squad than that under Cliff Fletcher.  They're younger, faster, and very soon will be better.  I dare say the Leafs are, for the moment, a better team than most of the non-playoff Eastern competition - except in goal, and except down the middle.  Of all the teams in the league, nobody is weaker down the middle than the Leafs are.  After Grabovski, there's this big, yawning chasm the size of the Grand Canyon, and then in the second line role is Tyler Bozak.  The 24-year-old is almost a rookie, having played only 37 games last year and 33 this year.  He may very well develop into something much more, but for now he's playing big minutes without big experience.

The other hole the Leafs have is puck-moving defencemen.  Despite having gotten the better of Calgary in the Phaneuf trade, Toronto is coming to realize Dion's limitations.  He may have size, strength, hitting power, shooting and good (but not great) passing, Dion has the same weakness he's had for years: positioning.  I'm obviously not a scout, heck, I'm not even a Pee-Wee coach, but this has been the knock on Phaneuf since day 1 and continues to be.  Given that Calgary felt OK in dealing the younger Phaneuf rather than the older Iginla, and that Phaneuf has dropped off the media's radar after 3-4 years as "the next Stevens", I feel justified in posting this.  He doesn't read defensive plays very well.  At age 25, Phaneuf is still learning defence but he's getting to that age, especially since he started young and has a lot of experience, where people worry if he's ever going to "get it". Phaneuf isn't horrible defensively, but not the elite, all-around defensive stalwart he's paid to be; the Chris Pronger, who Kevin Lowe famously remarked about, "when he's on the ice, you feel as if nothing can go wrong."  Of course, with many players, the light bulb often just suddenly turns on - one month they're the same-old same-old, the next they're the player they were projected to be.  As Dion ages, feels the pressure of being captain, and realizes what it takes to win, this may very well happen.

Despite their awful position right now and the pain of seeing the #1B draft choice in Boston, knowing that another high pick is going there, the Leafs are in good position.  They're young, they're tough, they're fairly quick.  The talent level and potential aren't as good as the Oilers, but their defencemen are better at actual defence (Toronto has no Whitney, but they have a lot of Smids.)  They have a lot of cap space and no players on entry-level contracts who are going to get big raises three years from now, unlike the Oilers.

Brian's real talent is in bringing quality free agents.  Like Paul Holmgren, he has a knack for signing the right guys for cheap.  Clarke MacArthur is this year's best example, and despite poor numbers, Colby Armstrong makes the Leafs a markedly better and tougher team when he's on the ice.

A solid goaltender will put them just behind the playoff race.  A puck-moving defenceman should get them possibly into the playoffs.  A second-line centre (nobody's going to trade a first-line centre away) will give them a real future.

I suspect it's a lot easier to be optimistic, or at least realistic about the Leafs when you don't have 43 years of frustration behind you and twenty media outlets focusing on every foible.  If Leafs fans could take a deep breath, and look on their team with my eyes, they'll see that the promise of a proper rebuild wasn't wasted.  It might have hit a hiccup with Kessel/Seguin and not gone the Chicago/Pittsburgh/Washington way, but we should see more out of them next season and potentially after this trade deadline.

Just for fun, let's compare goalies:

J.S. Giguere: 2.80 GAA, .894 SP.

J. Gustavsson: 3.10 GAA, .894 SP.

N. Khabibulion: 3.40 GAA, .899 SP.

D. Dubnyk: 3.07 GAA, .915 SP.

Khabi was our man in net when the Oilers were blown out during Nightmare November, and very few of those were his fault, as Tyler Dellow of MC79 details so accurately (for the 8-2 Rangers shellacking, at least).