Never Give Up, Never Surrender

Ales Hemsky breaking away from the pack

I have man-love for Ales Hemsky.  He plays well whether he's got good teammates or bad, whether the score is 5-0 against the Oilers or they're down 3-2 with minutes to play.  He has been criminally under-rated by the NHL community and Oiler fans alike for years.  Far too many Oiler fans have suggested "trade Hemsky", even this year or last, hoping for another top pick.  Really?  How many even top 5 overall picks turn out as good as him?

I also have man-love for this Oilers squad.  I was wrong.  The loss of Whitney, while a stinging hit and one that we will feel for as long as he's out, didn't demoralize the squad.

This keeps coming as a surprise to me.  Maybe I have a pessimistic outlook in general, or maybe past Oilers teams have taught me not to expect much.  Certainly after last year, it was clear that outside of Penner and Gagner, the marquee names didn't have fight in them when the chips were down.

This year, it's different.  With Ryan Whitney out, the forwards stepped up their game.  They managed a very good cycle several times - something they hadn't even hinted at in previous games.  They kept the puck in the offensive zone and scored from puck possession alone.  This took the pressure off the defenders, though they too did step up their game.  Despite his late penalty, Ladislav Smid played a very impressive game.  He showed more offensive flair last night vs Colorado than he had all of 2009-2010.  He pinched in at the right times, he went deep with the puck (a la Hemmer), skating around the back of the net and though nothing showed up on the scoreboard, he contributed.

Andrew Cogliano played a very solid defensive game and finally had his efforts rewarded with nice boxcar numbers.  Sam Gagner fought hard along the boards as did, in fact, all of our forwards - I just mention him as a rebuttal to his critics.

They lost, but they fought tooth and nail.  They came back from a horrible third period.  I am as proud of this team as any Oilers squad ever, and I'm sorry for doubting them.

The most beautiful woman in the world; Audrey reborn

In the time it took to Bob McKenzie to type out a twitter indicating that Ryan Whitney's ankle injury may be measured in months rather than weeks, the Oilers went from being a beautiful girl in full bloom of a fresh, young romance, to suddenly crying and dumped.  Still beautiful, still young, but now damaged and will need time to heal. 

In terms of individuals, they'll all say the right things - from Tambo on down to Ryan O'Marra.  Expect quotes like: "We're still looking to win, we may be young and have a few injured players but that doesn't excuse us from effort", and "This may be a learning season for our many young players, but the best way to learn is by winning".

There is, of course, no other possible response - in public or in private - for members of the organization.  Only at the very highest levels will Steve Tambellini and Tom Renney discuss how much darker our immediate future has become.  Where my concern as a fan comes in is if they realize the long-term danger.

There seem to be two kinds of teams that draft high: those that visit the basement and use their picks to get right out of it, and the perpetual basement dwellers.  Pittsburgh, Washington, and Philadelphia are all teams that hit the bottom and bounced back.  The Penguins spent the longest time there due to their financial and arena situation.  The Capitals were losing for quite a while despite ownership's best efforts (Ted Leonsis may be the best owner in sports.)  Philadelphia went from playoff contender to bottom-feeder, and right back to playoff contender.  They had one lottery pick, James van Riemsdyk, and he's not the reason for their turn-around or Stanley Cup run last year.

The other kinds of teams that draft high are best exemplified by the New York Islanders, Atlanta Thrashers, and Florida Panthers.  All three have consistently had high lottery picks, even #1 overall picks in the case of the Islanders, and their forays into the playoffs have been almost as brief as they are rare.  Atlanta is doing much better this season and the resolved ownership issues should help them out, but it remains to be seen if they can truly dig themselves out of their hole.  Other teams that could be used as examples until recently are the Phoenix Coyotes and Chicago Blackhawks.

The Blackhawks and Thrashers are the best examples of where the Oilers could go.  Under Dollar Bill Wirtz, the Blackhawks refused to spend in free agency, and if they did, it would be a one-off contract like the one that brought Khabibulin to the Windy City.  They'd fail to follow it up and build a team around their new player.  They didn't get support for Martin Havlat, either.  As much as Chicago's success is due to Toews and Kane breaking out, Chicago was already in the midst of improving their supporting cast in the rookie season for the dynamic duo.  The Oilers are apparently intent on tanking further.

This is demoralizing.  It's demoralizing for players like Ales Hemsky and Ryan Whitney, who are in their primes and want to get back into the playoffs, to compete and win.  It's demoralizing to older players like Shawn Horcoff and younger ones like Sam Gagner, who's been on losing teams his whole NHL career.  Franchises and fans can wait and hope the tank job accomplishes something.  Players have short careers, shorter peaks of their careers, and in a 30-team league, there's a two-thirds chance that an average player with a 10-year career will not win the Cup.  It's a 50% chance for those whose skills stand the test of time, who manage 15 years in the league.  Patience is a virtue, but the lack of it in players is understandable.

How the Oilers weren't involved in talks for James Wisniewski is beyond me.  We needed help on the back end before Whitney went down.  We need more than Jeff Petry and Martin Marincin, who might be impact players 5 years from now.  We need veterans.

Or we might end up like that other team, the other path the Oilers could go down on - the Atlanta Thrashers.  A couple of skilled wingers, a few holes in the middle, and a yawning chasm on the back end.  Tell me if this doesn't sound familiar: a team with a very complete scoring right winger and a dynamic goal-scoring left winger, with middling centres and no defence, picks in the lottery again and again.  That's the Thrashers as they were for years - Hossa and Kovalchuk.  It could also be the Oilers unless management gets serious. 

It's not that Pajaarvi, Omark, Hall and Eberle lack the will to win.  It's that they can't do it, not even the four of them if they develop into superstars.  They need support.  As star junior players realize they can't do it alone like they did when they were 18, so they realize that the franchise has to support them, or they go looking for other venues.  Losing is a disease.  Cure it or it becomes a chronic condition for the franchise.

Ryan Whitney's Ankle: The Oilers Achilles' Heel

Ryan Whitney's look of relief after scoring his first goal in the 2010-2011 season

Ryan Whitney has been the key cog for the Oilers this season.  It's not because he's the best player on the team, though he may be (it's a toss-up between him and Hemsky).  When Ales went down with the groin muscle tear, the next-best option, Jordan Eberle, is a fair substitution.  Eberle still has some way to go before he can fill the top line right wing role, but he's a very complete player.

The drop-off from Ryan Whitney to the #2 defenceman is daunting.  That's assuming the Oilers can legitimately be said to have a #2 defenceman.

Whitney hits, he's got very good positioning, he obviously knows how to pass and he's got a good shot.  Not a Chris Pronger or Sheldon Souray bomb, but it's good enough.  Ryan also provides the Oilers with something they really haven't had since Chris Pronger - an elite break-out pass.  This is absolutely vital to the Oilers offense, which is really successful only in two situations: catching turn-overs and in transition.

In short, he's the complete defenceman.

Nobody else on the team comes close.  Tom Gilbert's offensive flair comes and goes.  He can be a stand-out or simply fade into the background.  He can make great stretch passes, but he's not as reliable as Whitney in that regard.  More importantly, Tom Gilbert's actual defensive ability is suspect more often than anyone would like.  He is capable of being good defensively but this is far less consistent than even his flighty offensive efforts.  Tom seems like the guy who might lead the second pairing or be the second defenceman on the first or second, not the man you trust to lead the charge.

After Tom Gilbert, the Oilers defensive corps runs dry on offensive talent.  Ladislav Smid and Theo Peckham play similar games.  Smid is more about bruising, simple plays and some behind-the-refs'-backs punishment, while Peckham is generally better on the open ice and can line up the big hits reliably.  Smid is great on his third pairing, it's not too much responsibility for him and he provides a chippy edge to our defence.  Peckham could play on the first with Whitney, potentially lead the second pair but right now is better off as the second man there, and could definitely lead the third pairing with Smid.

Jeff Petry is an unknown at this point.  He was on for all four goals against last night versus Buffalo, but was credited with a helper on the Ryan Jones goal.  Given that it's his NHL debut, on a bad team in a slump, missing its best defenceman, it's hard to rag on the kid.

Jim Vandermeer and Jason Strudwick are known quantities.  Their foot speed betrays them in this league.  Both have adapted somewhat, getting better position and playing further back, but they're incredibly exposed on turn-overs or the kind of back-and-forth hockey the Oilers play.  A team with a slower tempo and more reliable forwards would be a better suit for either, but the Oilers are what they are.

In short, Whitney is completely irreplaceable.  Hemsky and Horcoff have decent substitutes, so does Khabi this year.

If the MRI on Whitney's ankle comes back really bad, as Bob McKenzie has rumoured, the wheels have officially fallen off the wagon this season.  Worse, it will likely slow development for the kids, since they won't get those nice break-out passes, and their mistakes are going to be much more costly.  The Oilers, rather than compete with the Flames for last in the West, could now find themselves in a competition with the Islanders and Devils for last in the league.  The embarrassing loss to a tired Buffalo team, after close defeats against San Jose, LA, and Vancouver, adds to the problem and is a bad sign for the Oilers sans Ryan Whitney.

Let us pray.

Kyle Wellwood on the receiving end of a Cam Barker love tap in the playoffs

The Oilers have been playing really well lately, their best hockey of the season.  That may be somewhat of a surprising position given a look at their record, but it's true.  Without their best player and best all-around centre, the Oilers have strung together three very close defeats at the hands of three very good teams.  They were more competitive against San Jose, Los Angeles, and now the red-hot and loaded Vancouver Canucks than they were in many wins this season.

The Canucks were the best team of the three and it showed, they had consistent puck possession and as the game went along they figured out how to limit the Oilers tendency to create odd-man rushes.  San Jose, not gifted with the fastest players in the league, had the roughest time with the Oilers.  Los Angeles, despite improving defensively in recent games - in particular their wins against Detroit, Nashville, and especially Colorado - is inconsistent at that spot as the Oilers showed.  If it was later in the season, and coaches were gathering video for a potential playoff matchup, I suspect the young Oilers success at breaking LA's defence might make for coach's room or locker room viewing.  LA looked awfully exposed.

Vancouver did not, but they're one of the favorites to win the Cup and the best team in the West along with Detroit.

Today's game against Buffalo will be telling.  The Oilers have had three close defeats in a row, and those can demoralize - especially giving up a lead and then a game winning goal late against Vancouver.  Their compete level against Buffalo today will be telling, since that's a team they can beat.  Hemsky's return to the lineup may very well spark them into a performance, or it may lead to some confusion.  Do you split up Hall and Eberle? Regardless, Hemsky should help the embarrassing power play.

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Learning to Fly

Normal people think bungee jumping is crazy, bungee jumpers think skydivers are nuts, skydivers look funny at base jumpers, and then... there are the wingsuit wingnuts.

Into the distance, a ribbon of black
Stretched to the point of no turning back
A flight of fancy on a windswept field
Standing alone my senses reeled
A fatal attraction holding me fast, how
Can I escape this irresistible grasp?

LT's post today, possibly the 10th this year in which he mentions how much he enjoys watching this year's Oilers, inspired me to comment and I'll echo these comments here:

Much as we try, I don't think it's possible to appreciate this year's team enough.  They're kids, and like children, they grow up too fast.  Young and hopeful, full of potential and not burdened in the least by expectations or a ticking clock, this may be the most enjoyable Oilers team I've ever watched.  They're not a winning team and quite unlikely to make the playoffs, but that just means there's nothing to stress and worry about.  For the next couple of years, but this year in particular, there's no anxiety about where they're going, what they'll do when they get there, and if they have the talent, the pieces, the chemistry, and above all the will to seize glory.

It has been 30 years since the 1980-81 season, when we first had the majority of the pieces.  Look at that season.  Dominated by red losses early on, slowly turning more and more green before a dominant finish.  The Oilers had done that the year before in '79-80, but the momentum didn't carry over.  After '80-81, however, things would be different for the next decade.

This could be the closest thing we have to the 1980-81 season in our lifetimes.  With more teams, a hard salary cap, and early unrestricted free agency, it won't be the same but it is sure coming close.  It's a magical season because unlike even next year, there are no expectations on this team.  We're Kevin Costner in Field of Dreams and we're just watching greats play the game.  There are no contract anxieties, no worries about the playoffs, no concerns if we have the right supporting cast.

Like real children, as they start coming into their own, we're in a special and rare moment where dreams and reality are interwoven.  The potential is there and right now it's undefinable, nobody knows how good Hall, Eberle, Pajaarvi, Omark, and even Gagner and Peckham can be.  We're free to let our imaginations run wild and dream.  And we can dream because there's enough reality, enough of a solid grounding for this team that we know for sure that something special is here.  These aren't flights of fancy about Jason Bonsignore, Steve Kelly, Boyd Devereaux and Michel Riesen.  These kids are here, in the NHL.  They're producing.  They're clicking.  They're having fun and clearly loving every moment of it.  Above all, anyone who sees them can sense that this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Which is exactly where the Oilers as an organization are.  I truly urge you to read LT's blog and catch up on the top 20 prospects this year because we are sitting on an embarrassment of riches:

Martin Marincin - 1st in WHL defencemen scoring, 2nd in WHL rookie scoring, 2nd in team scoring (after the very potent Brett Connolly).  Boldly moved from Europe to the WHL and adjusted immediately to the game, showing far more puck ability than expected, as he was projected to be a stay-at-home defenceman.  Key component of Slovakia's World Juniors team.

Anton Lander - Captain of the 2011 Swedish Junior team, captain of Timra IK of the Elitserien, a renowned two-way player in his league and well on his way to beating his personal scoring mark from last year.

Curtis Hamilton - He's a big man (6'3, 202), can't call him kid or boy.  Has shown way more offensive flair this season than past years, currently tracking 1.4PPG with the best +/- on the team.  Recently bumped up to the top line on Canada's WHJC squad.

Tyler Pitlick - Good-sized centre who will be competing with Lander for the two-way role on the team.  Like Marincin, he moved to the WHL, though his origins were much closer in the NCAA.  After struggling somewhat early in the season, has picked up the pace.  The +/- is middle of the pack for the team, which is something to note.  A surprising omission from the US WJHC training camp, but given the heavy veteran presence on that squad, not a huge concern.

And that's just the kids exceeding expectations this year.  Lowetide has a much more thorough rundown of our prospects on his site - like Ryan Martindale, Teemu Hartikainen, Toni Rajala, and more.

The Chicago Way

No caption necessary

From the moment the new CBA was signed, the hard cap made it obvious that teams couldn't buy Stanley Cups any more - or try to, like the Rangers and Leafs.  What wasn't immediately apparent was how important drafting would be.  Everyone saw how good the Penguins would be, but they had Sidney Crosby, a generational talent, and they got extremely lucky with Malkin.  In any other draft year, Malkin would have gone first and second overall would have seemed a distant second, but with Alex Ovechkin on the board, the Capitals chose him.

Meanwhile, time went on.  The Oilers went to the Cup Finals in the first year back from the lockout, carried on the wide shoulders of Chris Pronger and buoyed by some stellar play from heretofore minor contributors like Fernando Pisani.  Stellar play from Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff, with a once-in-a-career burst of motivation from Raffi Torres and a rejuvenated Jason Smith provided offensive punch and grit.  Dwyane Roloson played lights out and is still, to this day, under-rated by the league.  All this was held together by a team that listened to Craig MacTavish, a team that was completely selfless.  They sacrificed their bodies to block shots in numbers that I haven't seen since.  They never doubted themselves.  For all players and staff involved, including Pronger, this was probably the peak of their careers.

Though they lost to the Hurricanes, the 2006 Cup Finals looked like a fluke to NHL insiders, I suspect.  No team modeled themselves after the Hurricanes or the Oilers, though the Ducks were quick to snatch up Chris Pronger.

When the Ducks won the Cup the year after, it was a different story.  The story had nothing to do with market size or TV audiences, but the regular season standings.  The Ducks were a dominant western team, the Senators were a dominant eastern team.  The Ducks played mean, tough hockey.  They beat you up, they took up the space in front of both nets and they had more going for them than Chris Pronger and a couple of people peaking at the right time.  The Senators were skilled, fast, and offensively talented like few teams since the mid-90s.  When mean and nasty beat skilled and speedy, many teams modeled themselves after the Ducks.

A year later, when the Wings won the Cup, few teams modeled themselves after the Wings.  It's tough following the only generational talent drafted in the 90s (Nick Lidstrom - he's earned it, and Chris Pronger is making a good case for himself.)  It's especially tough when that team is led to the Cup by the #210 overall pick in the 1999 draft (Zetterberg), and then #171 overall pick in the 1998 draft (Datsyuk).  As good as the Wings are as an organization, that was luck.  Luck can be imitated but never duplicated.  I suspect that the Oilers' penchant for drafting obscure Europeans way off the board comes from a desire to imitate Detroit.  What the Oilers got wrong is in wasting quality picks on guys high on potential and short on ability.  Those get taken in later rounds.

Of course, Detroit beat the Penguins that year.  And something funny happened.  The hockey world at large started noticing that Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin weren't exceptions.

Let me go back to the 1990s for a second.  Look at those drafts on Wikipedia or hockeydb.  Those drafts look so brutal compared to the 80s and especially the mid-2000s onward.  I am certain this has to do with the change in the game at the time.  With big, hulking brutes dominating play, only big, hulking brutes could compete.  This doesn't mean just the Hatchers, Lindroses, and Leclairs, but big, grown men.  Not boys.  6'3 or not, if you came out of the OHL straight to the big show, you'd be lucky to weigh 190lbs soaking wet.  All your speed and agility wouldn't matter a whit with Derian Hatcher or Luke Richardson hooking a ride (literally) and then driving you through the boards into the third row seats.  It was a game where you dumped the puck in, you lumbered after the defencemen as they slogged their way across the ice, you pounded them and they pounded you in the corners, and another forward was fighting the other defenceman in front of the net.  They'd go hammer and tongs at each other until the puck was cleared, in the net, or the whistle blew.

Not much room for the Taylor Halls and Steven Stamkoses of the world in that scenario, much less the Patrick Kanes and Sidney Crosbies.  If you were small, fast and skilled, you had to be phenomenally good at making plays in order to offset yourself as a liability along the boards or in front of the net.  It makes me wonder what kind of career Danny Briere could have had if he was drafted in '06 instead of '96.  Pat LaFontaine always comes to mind for some reason.

With the rule changes, however, it was becoming apparent that skilled draft picks could get by on skill alone.  First Crosby and Ovechkin, then a year later Malkin (he spent an extra year in Russia), followed by Toews, Kessel, Kane, and Backstrom.  That was followed by Stamkos and Doughty, and the year after Tavares and Hedman.  Since the lockout, kids have been making an impact in a way not seen since the early 80s.  If they didn't dominate in their first year, they often have in their second (Tavares having the roughest time, possibly because of foot speed, possibly because he's alone on the ice.)  Certainly Taylor Hall looks like a potential world-beater.

Is it a consequence of an incredible run of luck in prospects?  Or is it more an effect of the rule changes that favor speed and skill over sheer goon power?

Other Teams: Burke

Brian Burke and star acquisition Phil Kessel in happier times

I might be the only Brian Burke fan in Edmonton, certainly the only Oilers fan I know of who likes Burke, a strange state of affairs I'll explain at a later date.  The many Leafs ex-pats in Edmonton likely feel the same way as Toronto residents do - they wish he'd followed the Chicago Way.  The Chicago Way being trendy this year (at least until Philly wins the Cup), this is a tough criticism to fight against, given that the Leafs traded two first-round picks for Phil Kessel.  Of course, last year's turned out to be second overall and  given the Leafs' travails this year, it's possible that the Boston Bruins will be drafting in the top 5 and are almost guaranteed to be top 10.  First overall, barring an unlikely lottery win, is not in the cards.  Currently the Leafs sit 13th in the East and 27th overall, though improvement for this team seems possible.

For the rest of this post, I'll do like I did yesterday: I'll set aside my fan-induced dislike of the Leafs and judge them, Burke, and Ron Wilson as impartially as I can.

The Kessel trade defines the Leafs now and will continue to define them for the next decade.  In Brian's own words, in September of 2009 when he pulled the trigger, "It's a very high price but it's one we feel makes sense for us [...]"  He knew it was a gamble.  Draft picks and prospects and even legitimate NHLers always are (chemistry, injuries, coach and system, etc.)

Kessel came highly touted in the 2006 draft, as a natural goal scorer who scores like a small player but has the size and strength of an average NHLer.  He showed flashes of that in his first two seasons, putting up 11 goals and 18 assists (-12) in '06-'07, then followed that up with 19 goals and 18 helpers (with a -6).  It's only in '08-'09 that he took off, smashing the 30-goal barrier decisively with a 36 goal, 24 assist campaign and ending the season with a very respectable +23.  He made only 232 shots that year, which gave him a 15.5% shooting percentage that is good but not an outlier for star players.  For comparison, Jonathan Toews is having a fairly average season for him this year and is banging home 13.4% of his shots.

At the time of the trade, Phil was only 21 years old and already a 36-goal scorer.  The Bruins could not sign him for what Phil wanted while remaining under the cap.  The 5-year, $27m contract that Kessel got from the Leafs is fair market value for a UFA with those stats, probably an overpayment for an RFA if other teams weren't going to sign him.  Since the Kevin Lowe offer to Thomas Vanek a few years ago, however, RFAs have lost their "untouchable" status, especially star prospects.  With the contracts Kessel would be getting as offers, the Bruins could have been getting 4 1st round picks as compensation.  Two first-rounders was a fair gamble.  It's obvious that Burke expected his team to be better, and given Philly's success in partially rebuilding through free agency, and Burke's own success in Anaheim (completely changing the squad that lost in the 2003 Cup Finals), it's not unreasonable to think he could do it again.  Kessel was a worthy gamble.  The Leafs arguably lost the bet but that remains to be seen - all sorts things can happen in the future.  Even if Seguin pans out, Kessel isn't bad compensation.

This brings us to the rest of the Leafs: this is a completely different squad than that under Cliff Fletcher.  They're younger, faster, and very soon will be better.  I dare say the Leafs are, for the moment, a better team than most of the non-playoff Eastern competition - except in goal, and except down the middle.  Of all the teams in the league, nobody is weaker down the middle than the Leafs are.  After Grabovski, there's this big, yawning chasm the size of the Grand Canyon, and then in the second line role is Tyler Bozak.  The 24-year-old is almost a rookie, having played only 37 games last year and 33 this year.  He may very well develop into something much more, but for now he's playing big minutes without big experience.

The other hole the Leafs have is puck-moving defencemen.  Despite having gotten the better of Calgary in the Phaneuf trade, Toronto is coming to realize Dion's limitations.  He may have size, strength, hitting power, shooting and good (but not great) passing, Dion has the same weakness he's had for years: positioning.  I'm obviously not a scout, heck, I'm not even a Pee-Wee coach, but this has been the knock on Phaneuf since day 1 and continues to be.  Given that Calgary felt OK in dealing the younger Phaneuf rather than the older Iginla, and that Phaneuf has dropped off the media's radar after 3-4 years as "the next Stevens", I feel justified in posting this.  He doesn't read defensive plays very well.  At age 25, Phaneuf is still learning defence but he's getting to that age, especially since he started young and has a lot of experience, where people worry if he's ever going to "get it". Phaneuf isn't horrible defensively, but not the elite, all-around defensive stalwart he's paid to be; the Chris Pronger, who Kevin Lowe famously remarked about, "when he's on the ice, you feel as if nothing can go wrong."  Of course, with many players, the light bulb often just suddenly turns on - one month they're the same-old same-old, the next they're the player they were projected to be.  As Dion ages, feels the pressure of being captain, and realizes what it takes to win, this may very well happen.

Despite their awful position right now and the pain of seeing the #1B draft choice in Boston, knowing that another high pick is going there, the Leafs are in good position.  They're young, they're tough, they're fairly quick.  The talent level and potential aren't as good as the Oilers, but their defencemen are better at actual defence (Toronto has no Whitney, but they have a lot of Smids.)  They have a lot of cap space and no players on entry-level contracts who are going to get big raises three years from now, unlike the Oilers.

Brian's real talent is in bringing quality free agents.  Like Paul Holmgren, he has a knack for signing the right guys for cheap.  Clarke MacArthur is this year's best example, and despite poor numbers, Colby Armstrong makes the Leafs a markedly better and tougher team when he's on the ice.

A solid goaltender will put them just behind the playoff race.  A puck-moving defenceman should get them possibly into the playoffs.  A second-line centre (nobody's going to trade a first-line centre away) will give them a real future.

I suspect it's a lot easier to be optimistic, or at least realistic about the Leafs when you don't have 43 years of frustration behind you and twenty media outlets focusing on every foible.  If Leafs fans could take a deep breath, and look on their team with my eyes, they'll see that the promise of a proper rebuild wasn't wasted.  It might have hit a hiccup with Kessel/Seguin and not gone the Chicago/Pittsburgh/Washington way, but we should see more out of them next season and potentially after this trade deadline.

Just for fun, let's compare goalies:

J.S. Giguere: 2.80 GAA, .894 SP.

J. Gustavsson: 3.10 GAA, .894 SP.

N. Khabibulion: 3.40 GAA, .899 SP.

D. Dubnyk: 3.07 GAA, .915 SP.

Khabi was our man in net when the Oilers were blown out during Nightmare November, and very few of those were his fault, as Tyler Dellow of MC79 details so accurately (for the 8-2 Rangers shellacking, at least).

Not Oilers Talk

Brian Burke and Darryl Sutter

There's been a lot to talk about the Oilers lately, but nothing other blogs haven't covered.  The past few days with no games for the Oilers have given me time to take a closer look at the league at large and especially the standings.  There are many ways a team can end up at the bottom of the standings - injuries, a flat-out bad roster, and mental reasons (morale, locker room attitude, players quit on the coach, etc.)  Most often, over an 82 game season, to truly plumb the depths of the NHL standings, it has to be a combination of many reasons.  With 30 teams and a season that's half a year long, simply losing your starting goaltender or being poorly built is not enough.  Many bad teams are riding on someone who should be a backup goalie (Tampa this year, Edmonton last year), or are without their star player (the Wild in their Gaborik era), or have a bad atmosphere in the locker room; you have to mix and match to become the worst of the worst.

That's why it's interesting to watch bad teams.  It takes an exceptionally lucky and sometimes even skilled general manager to build a team that wins the Cup.  By that logic, it shouldn't be as difficult to get out of the basement as it is to get in.  After all, if it takes such a combination of qualities to become a bottom feeder, a simple change in luck should turn things around.

Of course, it doesn't quite work that way.  The new CBA has really changed things around for general managers and I really feel for them.  Trades are pretty much gone, except at the trade deadline and in the off-season - and then usually only for expiring contracts.  Salary considerations for impact players on contending teams trump all.  Due to the Penguins, Capitals, and Blackhawks, bad teams want to get high draft picks and stockpile picks, not improve.  Due to the cap, good teams rarely have enough cap room available to get impact players.

So what do you do if you're Brian Burke or Darryl Sutter, two GMs sitting in two very hot seats?

Let's look at our close neighbour in Calgary today.  To put ourselves in the proper mindset, we need to imagine we're in the position of trying to run the Calgary Flames.  You have Jarome Iginla, now showing slight but consistent signs of decline yet still capable of taking over a game as your centerpiece.  Throw in Bouwmeester, Regehr, and Kiprusoff, you have a core of good players and you chose this past summer to build around them rather than blow it up.

In 2006-2007, Jim Playfair's only season as head coach in Calgary, the Flames ended up 8th in the West and were knocked out in 6 games by Detroit in a very strong Western Conference - they were the only team to make the show with less than 100 points.  Even the Minnesota Wild had 104.  Mike Keenan more or less reproduced these results over the next two years, with some minor touch-ups (the key difference being a significantly worse goal differential in the Keenan era).  After Darryl's brother Brent took over behind the bench in Calgary, the wheels basically came off the wagon.  The Flames arguably lost their playoff position in 2009-2010 with a 9-game losing streak in January, but they also padded their record by getting to stomp on an injured, uninspired, and small Oilers squad for six wins.

We are now Darryl Sutter.  What do we do?

There are the emotional and loyalty elements to consider - three of the four players you're building around are career Flames.  This matters.  It's not just a good story if loyal players in a small market like Calgary, in a hockey crazed country like Canada to boot, win the Cup.  As a GM or coach, you believe in your players.  Players, as often as we can regard many of them as mercenary and simply after the biggest contract they can find, do get attached to cities, homes, friends, neighbours, and even their organizations.  These bonds strengthen teams, they build connections with the fan base and make for great legends for decades down the line.  Putting business above all is bound to create a bad rep for a franchise, the way a player who just wants the stats in order to get a better contract creates his own problems.

Then you have the rational thinking.  Jarome Iginla is no spring chicken, and neither are Robyn Regehr or Miikka Kiprusoff.  Jay Bouwmeester had some nice seasons in Florida, but isn't the elite franchise defenceman that we believed him to be, but he has the third-highest cap hit among defencemen in the league.

The only time Darryl Sutter had a choice was in the off-season, when he might have traded two or even all three of his core, the career Flame players.  During the season itself, he'll have to wait for the deadline if he hopes to move anyone.  Regehr is speculated to be on the trade block, and with Calgary's latest 3-game losing streak, rumours are the team is about to be blown up.

So who do you trade, where do you trade them, and what do you get back?  Almost any team in need of an aging but skilled veteran is close to the cap, so you'll be taking back salary, and since the team you're trading with is contending, that salary will be under-performing and over-paid, especially if packaged with a high draft pick or blue chip prospect.

The LA Kings have been in the market for a while now, and would doubtless love to get their hands on Iginla, and would likely settle for Regehr.  With $4.4m in cap space, the Kings would need to shed salary in order to bring in either Iggie, but not Regehr.  The Flames might want Justin Williams and would love Dustin Brown back if they want an NHLer, but if the Kings are taking on Iginla they're going for a run and they won't give up a producers like those, especially not the just-hitting-his-prime Brown.  Handzus is in the last year of his contract and isn't doing well, but has a no-trade clause.  Alexei Ponikarovsky is the most likely contract to go, with $3.2m left, should Iginla be involved.

LA would have to give up several first rounders to get Iginla back, but that's betting a lot that he can help take them to the promised land.  Calgary would expect nothing less, but the Kings might not be so keen on giving up even two mid-late first rounders, who might end up being affordable roster players on ELCs in the future as Kopitar is in his prime.  It's a risky move for both sides, which simply adds to the difficulty of making a trade.

Forum speculation has listed the Rangers and Stars as possible destinations, but the former have little to offer Calgary in terms of tradeable contracts (the struggling Chris Drury has two more years left and has a NMC.)  The Stars have the cap room, but not the money, and Iginla has two more seasons left after this one at $7m.  Any contract the Stars can deal back that might ease the pain has a NTC attached to its name, with the possible exception of Mike Ribeiro, who doesn't help ease Calgary's situation that much.

For all the trade talk we fans like to make on forums, on the radio, at work, and at the bar, there are precious few options available, unless one side is really willing to take a gamble that their "overpayment" is going to work out.

Taylor Hall celebrates the Oilers 4th goal against the Leafs on Dec. 2, 2010.

Just a few short weeks after being blown out in four of five games by scores like 8-2, the Oilers defeat the Maple Leafs 5-0.

Typical of this season, the Oil were outshot 33-19, but for once that shot total wasn't as bad as it looks.  The Leafs were either desperate or just stopped caring, because they shot from anywhere.  They arguably still had more chances than the Oilers, but not by a 1.5 : 1 ratio.

There are several reasons this win is impressive, more impressive than the come-from-behind victory against Montreal the night before.  It's the Oilers' 3rd game in 4 nights, second in a row, and it is against arguably equal competition.  We were without our best player and our goalie was coming back from a groin injury.  Having Khabibulin in net makes for three different goalies in three straight games - on the road to boot.

The laughable Leafs are equal competition to the Oilers.  Both teams were tied with 20 points apiece.  The Leafs were in a bad mental space on a long losing streak, the Oilers were tired and had the perfect excuse to take a game off (as Oilers teams since 2006 have been prone to doing).  They could have said "we've done enough, we're tired, nobody will be mad if we lose."  True, they were outplayed, especially in the first, but they didn't quit.  This is another feature new to the Oilers collective psyche.

What really makes this game significant is that we're starting to see some consistency from the kids.  Hall has 4 goals and 1 helper in 5 games, and is +7 over 7 games.  Eberle has six points in that same 5-game span, and has his first goal since October 29, and is +6 over 7 games.  Even Pajaarvi, who has had a much rougher transition from the SEL than I imagined, got his first point in a month and played effectively.  We can expect more from the three come mid-late January.  With half a season under their belts, especially with the minutes Hall and Eberle have been getting, the rookies should increase production.  We'll worry about sophomore slumps next year.

As significant as this game is for the Oilers, it's much more meaningful to Leafs fans.  They were demolished by a bad, tired, young Oilers squad that is missing its best player.  The Leafs haven't had a proper rebuild in ages, and Brian Burke's bold moves have not only not brought them out of the basement, he has basically crippled their ability to start a rebuild.  Two first round picks might not have been an overpayment for Phil Kessel if Toronto was in the playoffs.  They're not.  Last year they were the second-worst team in the league and handed the second overall pick to the Bruins.  Seguin is within spitting distance of Stamkos.  This year the Leafs look likely to contend for bottom three in the league, likely handing the Bruins a chance at Couturier, Nugent-Hopkins, or Larsson.

This season the Leafs are effectively in a rebuild, they're the youngest team in the league.  However, Leafs fans don't get to soothe the pain of 5-0 (or 8-2) losses with the knowledge that they have some of the best young talent in the league developing right in front of their eyes.  The Leafs faithful have Kadri and little else.  Kessel peaked early, Phaneuf isn't getting any better and the rest of their lineup are more or less interchangeable plugs.  And like last year, the Leafs fans are watching their team tank and they don't even get the conciliation of a high draft pick for their pain.

Martin Marincin's hot WHL Start

Martin Marincin sends Kadri flying at the 2010 Juniors

One of the picks I was most unfamiliar with at the draft was Slovakian product Martin Marincin, who came to the Oilers 46th overall in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft.  Judging by his size and the commentary at the draft, I figured he was brought aboard to plug a defensive need and provide some grit on the back end.  A vision of someone along the lines of Matt Greene came to mind.  With hockey season a quarter of the way over, a different aspect of Martin is starting to get attention.

Remember the first Oil Change, where a certain prospect was highly coveted and we hoped to trade up to get him in the first round?  Ryan Johansen has been all but confirmed as that prospect, and he sits in a 4-way tie for 29th in WHL scoring - with Oilers prospect defenceman Marincin being one of the other three players there. Among defencemen, Marincin is second overall in league scoring, and is also second overall in scoring among rookies.

The jump from junior to the NHL may not be a chasm like the Grand Canyon, but far more players fall into the pit than make the transition.  That said, Marincin's combination of size - he's 6'4 and almost 190lbs - and scoring (8G, 17A in 23GP) - is impressive.  He's also adapted well to the North American game, a key challenge for many European players.  Marincin's desire to come over and play our rougher style, even though it meant being out on the far end of the earth in Prince George is a statement of character.  He's ambitious, he's smart enough to understand the transition, he knows he's going to play more games in the Dub than he will at home, and he's willing to suffer that brutal travel schedule to do it.  It's 7 hours from Prince George to Kamloops, kids.  That's the shortest bus ride they get.

As for the Cougars, they are a decent team but Marincin is clearly not riding on the backs of any great talent.  The up-and-down season is a product of being stuck in the tough western conference of the WHL, where they reside in 8th place despite being over .500.  Marincin's 33 PIMs suggest that he's no shrinking violet, and his +2 is second-best among defencemen on a team that is facing the best the WHL has to offer more often than not.  He's second in scoring, behind the much-vaunted Brett Connolly, trailing him by only three points.

Here are some comparisons of final junior seasons for current top NHL defencemen of comparable size:

• Dustin Byfuglien (6'4): 64GP, 22G, 36A.
• Brent Seabrook (6'3): 63GP, 12G, 42A.
• Jay Bouwmeester (6'4): 61GP, 11G, 50A.
• Shea Weber (6'4): 55GP, 12G, 29A.
• Alexander Edler (6'3): 62GP, 13G, 40A.
• Marc Staal (6'3): 53GP, 5G, 29A. (in his draft year, Staal went 57GP, 11G, 38A)
• Dion Phaneuf (6'3): 55GP, 24G, 32A.
• Keith Yandle (6'2): 66GP, 25G, 59A.

That's some pretty impressive company, isn't it?  What does it mean?

Not much, really.  Jeff Woywitka, a 6'3 journeyman of median abilities, had 16G and 36A in 57GP for Red Deer, a year after he was drafted 27th overall by Philly in 2001.  Comparable stats can be found to show just about anything someone likes.

I am excited by Marincin, however.  I doubt he'll be an explosive offensive force in the NHL, but his maturity and attitude in coming over shows me that he's dedicated to his craft.  With his size and ability, he could make a top pairing defenceman eventually.

Bad Losses, Continued

Maybe we can convince Kevin Lowe to suit up

There's really not much to say about the Oilers' 5-0 loss to Chicago tonight that I didn't say just a few days ago. Losses in a rebuild are understandable.  As are occasional blow-outs.  However, in the past 5 games we have been outscored 30-8.

7-1, 6-2, 4-3, 8-2, 5-0.  These aren't baseball scores from the World Series, ladies and gentlemen.  You might expect the average hockey team to experience blowouts like those (other than the New Jersey 4-3 loss) maybe 5-6 times per season, not almost 5 games in a row.

For some perspective, Bulin allowed two goals in the first period and still had a .900 save percentage at first intermission.  How many goalies can say that?  A team that is outshot 20-4 in the first period and 47-18 in the game cannot even begin to pin the blame on the goalie.

Terrible beatings like this are what starts to really mess with team and fan morale.  There will always be a few die-hard grumblers (les grognards) who will find something to complain about, who will not accept the realities of a rebuild.  These people are to be expected and treated accordingly; acknowledged and dismissed.  However, the realistic and even the optimistic fans will see significant cause for concern in a situation like this, with constant losses that are only getting worse.  This was supposed to be a fun season, one full of ups and downs.  Nobody went in expecting a winning record, and few expected to be out of the bottom 5 in the league.  However, we did hope to see some offence, to see the kids play and create and show sparks of brilliance like they did early on this season.

As a fan, this isn't fun.  I can't imagine being a player and enjoying myself in this situation, and this is where guys start getting in each other's faces in unhealthy ways.  Steve Tambellini might not have made all the right moves this off-season, but he did his best to get rid of the dressing room cancers.  Another four or five losses like this, however, the cancer will not only have come back it will have spread.

We went over 50% on the dot, however.  Everyone knows how important face-offs are for puck possession.

Colin Campbell's Biases

By now you've doubtless read about the scandal surrounding NHL disciplinarian Colin Campbell.  To most fans, Colin has been an inconsistent and frustrating figure in the NHL head office.  One minute he's giving out five game suspensions for an action, the other he's writing off a repeat offender's action as "legal", though you'd be hard pressed to find a difference in video review.

We've known for a long time that Colin Campbell is inconsistent and arguably incompetent.  Now we have a clue as to why.  The story originally broke on MC79, a blog I linked here from the very beginning.  Tyler Dellow, author of MC79, is nothing if not thorough and meticulous.  As you read the TSN article, it becomes clear that Colin has clear biases and blatantly oversteps his bounds by peddling his influence in favor of his son, Greg Campbell, and the teams Greg plays on.  This is just flat out against the rules of the NHL.

When you reach the bottom of the TSN article, you find the NHL's and Colin Campbell's official responses:

Contacted by TSN for its reaction to Dellow's piece, deputy commissioner Bill Daly said: "Any suggestion that Colin Campbell performs his job with any less than 100% integrity at all times and in every decision he makes is way off base and just factually wrong.  Because of the potential for a conflict of interest, or more importantly a perceived conflict of interest,  the League has implemented various structural protections that prohibit Colie from having any oversight or disciplinary authority relating to any game in which his son, Gregory, plays.  Its always fair to question and criticize League decisions as being wrong, but not on the basis that they aren't justly and fairly arrived at."


Contacted by TSN for his reaction, Campbell said: "For me, it's much ado about nothing. Stephen and I would have banter back and forth and Stephen knows I'm a (hockey) dad venting and both of us knowing it wouldn't go any further than that. Stephen would laugh at me. The game in question (when Gregory Campbell was penalized late in the Atlanta-Florida game) wasn't on TV and I was asking Stephen to find out for me if it was a soft call. That's all there ever was to it. The (refs) working that game are still in the league, aren't they? Stephen handled the officials, just like Terry Gregson does now, and I've got a lot of emails to those guys asking about this soft call or that soft call and that's in a lot of games. I'm not ultimately responsible for the (on-ice) officials, that's Terry Gregson's responsibility, but I have to answer to GMs on these calls."


And that's the end of the story as far as the mass media is concerned.  Even though Bill Daly and Campbell are flat out lying about the situation, completely contradicting what we now know is fact and is on the legal record, TSN doesn't comment, doesn't respond.

In my first-ever blog post I mentioned I had worked in the media prior to this and I specifically mentioned that the one thing I felt I could bring to the blogging community is commentary on the incestuous relationship between genre media and the genre it covers.  You'll notice that car magazines are never very critical of car companies - even in the 80s, when the Big Three from Detroit were making ugly, underpowered, uncomfortable steel boxes on wheels, Road & Track and Car & Driver had good things to say about them.  You can see the same thing in gaming media (glowing previews of games that turn out to be crap), and of course sports media.

TSN will report the story.  They will do their duty by getting an official response from the NHL, and then they'll drop it.  No matter how blatant and obvious the lies, they will leave it there and hope that most fans don't care.  Why?  Because TSN, like ESPN, like the CBC, all depend on the NHL for inside access.  They will not jeopardize this.  It is up to us, the bloggers, the fans on the forums, to make ourselves heard.

The NHL and NBA are the Mickey Mouse outfits of the pro sporting world.  Neither can shake decades of refereeing or front office controversy.  The NBA has Tim Donaghy and the 1998 Finals Game 6 in Utah.  The NHL has Alan Eagleson and now Colin Campbell.

For a league with as sordid a history as the NHL has, going back to quashing the original NHLPA in '57-'58, and then abusing the players in the Alan Eagleson era, the last thing the NHL needs right now is another scandal.  They need to be open, up front, acknowledge their mistakes, and hire an actual, competent outsider to hand out discipline.  Someone connected to franchises, teams, players, and his own son in the league, is not qualified.  This is not a surprise to anyone who's followed Colin Campbell's examples of "discipline" over the years.

Bad Losses

It's one thing to beat yourself up to your own benefit.

I doubt that the educated and well-meaning Oiler fan will get too upset over a losing season during an acknowledged rebuild year, a rear right after we drafted first overall.  That's fine, we can live with that.  It's not pretty, and it's not what we want to see, but it's something we can live with because we understand the NHL system and we know this will make us better in the long run.

So when someone argues that we should trade Penner for Chris Phillips, I argue no, because Penner is an asset and could still be useful 3-5 years from now, when this team is competitive.  Chris Phillips is 30 and it's very likely he will not be good at the time when we actually need him to be good.  Inherent in this argument is the knowledge that losing, painful as it may be, is all part of the plan.

This kind of sanguine and generous viewpoint is hard to maintain in light of an 8-2 beatdown by the middling New York Rangers.  Yet when this loss comes on the heels of a 7-1 defeat to the equally mediocre Carolina Hurricanes and a 6-2 thrashing at the hands of the admittedly mighty Red Wings, topped off by a 4-3 defeat by the supposedly-just-as-bad-as-we-are Devils in which the Oilers were outshot 39-24, a sanguine attitude is hard to maintain.

Something must be done!  The feeling builds within our hearts.  Even the happy-to-lose crowd with dreams of a second consecutive first overall pick, think that at least for the sake of the kids, we should make some upgrades.  We allegedly got rid of the cancers in the dressing room over the summer.  For the continued health of the team it would behoove us to not roll around in toxic waste dumps, the kind created by losing by 17 goals in 4 games, if we expect there to be a proper atmosphere in the locker room.  Yes, we can lose, we expect to.  But be competitive.  Score.  Defend.  Make other teams pay to play us.  If need be, get occasionally blown out, after all, we're a bad team.  Just don't lose by 17 goals over 4 games.

Adam Larsson Hype

Adam Larsson and Teemu Hartikainen tangle along the boards - a preview of a future Oilers practice?

Since even before the draft, I've been hearing about Adam Larsson.  Oiler fans, anticipating another season potentially scrubbing the NHL's basement, became excited about having a top 3 draft pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.  The 2011 preliminary rankings have the top 3 listed, in order, as Sean Couturier, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Larsson.  After the preliminary rankings, which NHL teams use to set targets for their scouting teams, the ISS is mostly disregarded by the pros and only serves as something to talk about for the fans.

Larsson has drawn the most attention of the three because of the incredible wording used to describe him, such as "potentially the best player to come out of Sweden".  Most of this talk is on the basis of his 2010 performance in the Swedish Elite League, where he scored 17 points (5G, 12A) as a 17-year-old, matching a 30-year-old record.

Thus, the preliminary rankings, as well as all draft lists compiled by news media, bloggers, and forum posters, are based on the efforts of the previous season.  The entire summer, for the rabid fans that talk hockey even in the middle of August, was just a giant echo chamber for what Larsson had done the year before.  Much of the hype and expectations he's carrying now are the result of that summer.

The 3 assists in 17 games so far this season do not suggest that Larsson will be able to maintain his top-3 ranking, never mind become "the best player out of Sweden".  For comparison, as a 17 year old, Victor Hedman had 2G and 2A in 39 games for MODO.  In his draft year, he improved to 7G and 14A in 43 games, and still went second overall behind Tavares.

Larsson is getting almost 18 minutes per game of ice time, so he's at least getting a decent shot at proving himself worthy of getting more.  His team is second overall in standings, so it's hard to argue that he has poor support to finish the plays he makes.  It could be that he's injured, but we haven't heard anything on this side of the pond.  An injury, while an excuse for poor performance, is also going to his his draft ranking - just ask Brett Connolly.  Injured players don't develop as well, and there's always the fear that the player could be fragile.

We'll have a better idea of Larsson's potential later in the season, especially once Bob McKenzie compiles his draft rankings.  Until then, Oiler fans may be better served by taking a more critical look at Larsson and instead imagining Couturier or Nugent-Hopkins up the middle, or perhaps Ryan Murphy.  31 points in 18 games, including 10 goals, is nothing to sneeze at in the OHL.  And he's a defenceman!

Introductions

I've been wanting to write a hockey blog for about a year now, but after reading a comment by Lowetide that somebody should have something to offer the reader before writing it.  The blog has to be interesting to the fans rather than the blogger himself, otherwise it's purely a vanity project and, due to lack of readership, will be an unsatisfying vanity project at that.

I then asked myself what I have to offer any potential audience.  This took some time and eventually I came down to two conclusions:

1.  I am a former member of the media.  Not the mainstream media, or sports media, but a form of media just as incestuous and just as dependent on its host for scraps as the sports media.

2.  I am somewhat of a contrarian.  Whenever opinion swings wildly to one side or another, I suspect it is because of emotional reasoning rather than any deep mental process, and I start picking apart arguments.  I think this is useful to a community, because it forces that community to re-examine its logic.  Sometimes I can make good points, other times I only pick away at the weak edges of the consensus.

I hope that this blog has the value and energy necessary to contribute for years to come, rather than merely becoming a vehicle for vainglory.